预测市场赔率 + 永续合约持仓。两个源都是成交出来的价，不是谁的观点。
价 ≈ 概率，但不是概率：手续费、流动性折价、favorite-longshot 偏差都在里面。流动性低于 $100k 标「薄市场」，那个价不值得读。Δ24h 历史不足 12 小时显示「·」，不显示 0。
| 事件 / 代表市场 | 市场价（≈概率） | Δ24h | 24h 成交 | 流动性 | 截止 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in September?Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 79%Yes | -1 | $6.9M | $1.2M | 2026-09-16 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 83%No | -3 | $102k | $515k | 2026-12-31 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | 87%Yes | ±0 | $85k | $179k | 2026-12-09 |
| Fed rate hike by...?Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | 83%Yes | +1 | $77k | $324k | 2026-10-29 |
| Fed Decision in October?Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 62%Yes | ±0 | $70k | $412k | 2026-10-28 |
| Largest Company end of September?薄市场Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | 91%Yes | -4 | $57k | $66k | 2026-09-30 |
| 事件 / 代表市场 | 市场价（≈概率） | Δ24h | 24h 成交 | 流动性 | 截止 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Prime Minister of Sweden薄市场Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 89%Yes | +23 | $1.4M | $41k | 2026-09-13 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | 78%No | -1 | $555k | $485k | 2027-01-01 |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 24%Yes | ±0 | $507k | $435k | 2028-11-07 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by...?薄市场Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | 13%Yes | -1 | $442k | $92k | 2027-07-01 |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?薄市场Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | 46%Yes | +8 | $373k | $10k | 2026-09-15 |
| 事件 / 代表市场 | 市场价（≈概率） | Δ24h | 24h 成交 | 流动性 | 截止 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? | 100%No | ±0 | $269k | $952k | 2026-09-15 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?薄市场Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | 39%Yes | -18 | $247k | $46k | 2026-10-31 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | 60%Yes | -6 | $173k | $199k | 2027-01-01 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 95%No | +1 | $160k | $522k | 2026-12-31 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)薄市场US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30? | 93%Yes | ±0 | $134k | $30k | 2026-09-30 |
| 事件 / 代表市场 | 市场价（≈概率） | Δ24h | 24h 成交 | 流动性 | 截止 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin above ___ on September 14?薄市场Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 14? | 100%Yes | ±0 | $426k | $45k | 2026-09-14 |
| What price will Ethereum hit in September?薄市场Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in September? | 100%Yes | · | $424k | $0 | 2026-10-01 |
| What price will Bitcoin hit in September?薄市场Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September? | 100%Yes | · | $277k | $0 | 2026-10-01 |
| What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?薄市场Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 September 7-13? | 100%Yes | · | $269k | $0 | 2026-09-14 |
| 事件 / 代表市场 | 市场价（≈概率） | Δ24h | 24h 成交 | 流动性 | 截止 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys vs. Giants薄市场1Q Spread: Cowboys (-0.5) | 100%Giants | -46 | $2.9M | $0 | 2026-09-14 |
| Packers vs. Vikings薄市场 | 100%Vikings | -46 | $2.2M | $0 | 2026-09-13 |
| Commanders vs. Eagles薄市场 | 100%Eagles | -11 | $1.8M | $0 | 2026-09-13 |
| Pro Football: 2027 ChampionWill the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? | 12%Yes | ±0 | $1.5M | $145k | 2027-02-14 |
看 premium（标记价 − 预言机价），不看 funding：139/234 个合约的 funding 卡在平台利率基准，那个「+11%/年」是利率项不是多头拥挤。流动合约（24h > $5M）premium 中位 -0.024%。
| 合约 | 标记价 | 24h | 24h 成交 | 持仓 | premium | funding |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $76,668.00 | -0.75% | $1.36B | $2.66B | -0.024% | 基准 |
| ETH | $2,476.86 | -1.89% | $1.00B | $2.42B | -0.052% | 基准 |
| ZEC | $1,063.30 | -5.79% | $298.5M | $475.0M | -0.018% | 基准 |
| HYPE | $77.559 | -2.25% | $281.0M | $1.61B | -0.043% | 基准 |
| SOL | $99.374 | -2.44% | $127.3M | $517.4M | -0.044% | +1.6%/yr |
| XRP | $1.343 | -1.68% | $68.9M | $203.6M | -0.011% | 基准 |
| PUMP | $0.00349 | -8.60% | $47.1M | $144.5M | -0.057% | -11.7%/yr |
| PONS | $0.52454 | -13.74% | $31.0M | $69.7M | +0.133% | +62.5%/yr |
| LIT | $4.170 | -1.15% | $22.1M | $174.0M | +0.009% | 基准 |
| UNI | $6.170 | -3.48% | $19.9M | $52.6M | 0.000% | 基准 |
| NEAR | $2.297 | -2.83% | $19.1M | $142.8M | -0.036% | 基准 |
| VVV | $21.403 | -12.55% | $17.5M | $47.9M | +0.038% | 基准 |
| BinPerp | HlPerp | BybitPerp | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | +9.1% /8h | +10.9% /1h | +0.3% /8h |
| ETH | +4.7% /8h | +10.9% /1h | +4.9% /8h |
| SOL | -3.0% /8h | +1.6% /1h | -9.9% /8h |