预测市场赔率 + 永续合约持仓。两个源都是成交出来的价，不是谁的观点。
每句都自带日期、出处和它最需要的那条限定语，单独摘出去也不会被读错。句子由脚本从本页的数据算出，不经过语言模型。
2026 年 10 月 29 日 07:18（UTC），Polymarket 事件「Fed Decision in December?」（2026-12-10 截止）里，「加息 25 个基点」市场的价为 77%，「不变」为 22%，「降息 25 个基点」为 0%（事件流动性 $1.5M）。价约等于概率但不是概率：手续费、流动性折价、favorite-longshot 偏差都在里面；这是成交出来的价，不是谁的观点。
At 07:18 UTC on October 29, 2026, on Polymarket's "Fed Decision in December?" event (closing 2026-12-10), the market for a 25 bp rate increase traded at 77%; no change 22%, a 25 bp cut 0% (event liquidity $1.5M). A price is close to a probability but is not one: fees, a liquidity discount and favourite-longshot bias are all in it, and it is a traded price, not anyone's opinion.
2026 年 10 月 29 日 07:18（UTC），Hyperliquid 的 235 个永续合约 24 小时成交合计 $5.05B、持仓合计 $11.11B；其中 133 个合约的 funding 卡在平台利率基准（每小时 0.0000125，年化约 +11%），那是利率项、不是多头拥挤，不是持仓信号。该看的是 premium（标记价 − 预言机价）：24 小时成交超过 $5M 的合约，premium 中位数为 0.000%。
At 07:18 UTC on October 29, 2026, Hyperliquid's 235 perpetual contracts had $5.05B of 24-hour volume and $11.11B of open interest; 133 of them had funding pinned at the platform interest baseline (0.0000125 per hour, about +11% a year), which is the interest component, not long crowding, and not a positioning signal. Premium (mark minus oracle price) is what to read: across contracts with over $5M of 24-hour volume the median premium was 0.000%.
2026 年 10 月 29 日 07:18（UTC），Hyperliquid 上 BTC 永续合约的标记价为 $79,878.00，premium（标记价 − 预言机价）为 -0.007%，funding 卡在平台利率基准，不是持仓信号。这是成交出来的价，不是谁的观点。
At 07:18 UTC on October 29, 2026, the BTC perpetual on Hyperliquid had a mark price of $79,878.00 and a premium (mark minus oracle price) of -0.007%; funding sat at the platform interest baseline, which is not a positioning signal. It is a traded price, not anyone's opinion.
出处：Polymarket、Hyperliquid 公开接口，经 bets.localkin.ai 整理；不构成投资建议。
上面的数字由确定性层算，这一段由主编 + 两席（预测市场席、永续合约席）写 —— 分层是有意的。简报不给交易建议，只能引用真的回答了的席位（脚本逐个核对，对不上打回重写），两次都不合格就保留上一份：页面上是 6 小时前的解读，好过一份编出来的。
本轮 odds_watch 与 perp_watch 均返回内容。最要紧的一件事是 Fed gap 从 1.5 点扩大至 5.5 点，收敛周期中断：CME 29% 剧烈松动（41%→29%）但可靠性存疑，PM「不变」66%（+35 点，$2.9M/$208k）价涨量升但深度腰斩，鸽派定价在极端化；加密永续端 majors 全面回暖，跨所 funding 收敛至 +11%/yr，与 Fed 鸽派形成共振，但 NEAR 以 $343M 成交进入确定性层（premium +0.133%），操纵从低流动性小币蔓延至中等市值标的。odds_watch 判断：CME 29%（上轮 41%）从冻结两轮骤降至 29%，鸽派信号极强但无成交量数据，可能是数据管道问题。PM「不变」66%（+35 点，$2.9M/$208k）——成交 $2.9M 创新高，但深度从 $398k 腰斩至 $208k，大单推动特征明显，共识在强化但支撑在恶化。PM「加息」34%（-31 点）——与「不变」差距拉大至 32 点，鸽派定价在极端化。2026 再加息 80%（-11 点，$224k/$91k 薄）——-11 点幅度极大但流动性薄，方向可信但精确水平不可信。Israel PM Eizenkot 47%（-3 点，$1.4M/$166k）——-3 点幅度收窄，$1.4M 成交极高，跌破 50% 第五日，翻转力度在减弱。perp_watch 判断：BTC $85,410（+1.23%，premium -0.019%，funding 基准）——空头在撤退。ETH $2,732.90（-0.17%，premium +0.004%）——多头稳住。跨所 BTC/ETH/SOL 三所 funding +11%/yr——极端分化结束，市场进入均衡。NEAR $5.383（+11.48%，premium +0.133%，$343M/$352M）——新极端多头信号，确定性层信号，操纵蔓延至中等市值标的。PUMP $0.00571（-1.58%，premium +0.053%，funding +21.1%/yr）、ENA $0.26873（+5.70%，premium +0.058%，funding +32.6%/yr）、WLD $0.56410（+12.87%，premium +0.055%，funding +21.2%/yr）——alt 操纵周期在扩散，新极端正 funding 信号涌现。HYPE $87.739（-0.80%，premium -0.056%，funding -5.1%/yr）——空头仍在主导但力度减弱。总量 $6.49B（上轮 $6.09B）回升，OI $12.72B（上轮 $12.37B）回升——成交与持仓同步回升，资金在回流。流动合约 premium 中位 +0.022%——从多空平衡转正，多头略占优。关键矛盾：Fed 鸽派极端化与加密 majors 回暖形成共振，但 PM 深度腰斩、CME 可靠性存疑，且 alt 操纵周期在扩散——宏观共振真实度与微观操纵风险并存。
价 ≈ 概率，但不是概率：手续费、流动性折价、favorite-longshot 偏差都在里面。流动性低于 $100k 标「薄市场」，那个价不值得读。Δ24h 历史不足 12 小时显示「·」，不显示 0。
| 事件 / 代表市场 | 市场价（≈概率） | Δ24h | 24h 成交 | 流动性 | 截止 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December?Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 77%Yes | +1 | $2.2M | $447k | 2026-12-10 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | 78%Yes | +1 | $115k | $196k | 2026-12-10 |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 97%Yes | +1 | $76k | $298k | 2027-01-01 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 89%No | ±0 | $75k | $347k | 2027-01-01 |
| How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?薄市场Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027? | 66%Yes | -3 | $49k | $1k | 2026-12-31 |
| Largest Company end of October 2026?薄市场Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | 78%Yes | -16 | $46k | $15k | 2026-11-01 |
| 事件 / 代表市场 | 市场价（≈概率） | Δ24h | 24h 成交 | 流动性 | 截止 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 45%Yes | -8 | $4.4M | $754k | 2026-10-28 |
| Which party will win the House in 2026?Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 93%Yes | +1 | $2.1M | $7.0M | 2026-11-04 |
| Israeli Legislative Election WinnerWill Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 100%Yes | +1 | $1.4M | $504k | 2026-10-28 |
| Israel Election: Likud # of seats?薄市场Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 98%Yes | +6 | $1.4M | $55k | 2026-10-28 |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 67%Yes | +1 | $1.3M | $4.8M | 2026-11-04 |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?薄市场US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20? | 100%Yes | · | $841k | $0 | 2027-01-01 |
| 事件 / 代表市场 | 市场价（≈概率） | Δ24h | 24h 成交 | 流动性 | 截止 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?薄市场US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | 62%Yes | +2 | $547k | $93k | 2027-01-01 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?薄市场Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18? | 100%Yes | · | $503k | $0 | 2026-12-31 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | 100%No | ±0 | $438k | $270k | 2026-11-01 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | 97%No | -1 | $210k | $271k | 2027-01-01 |
| 事件 / 代表市场 | 市场价（≈概率） | Δ24h | 24h 成交 | 流动性 | 截止 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What price will Bitcoin hit in October?薄市场Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October? | 100%Yes | -16 | $1.1M | $0 | 2026-11-01 |
| Bitcoin above ___ on October 29?薄市场Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 29? | 100%Yes | ±0 | $535k | $55k | 2026-10-29 |
| What price will Ethereum hit in October?薄市场Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in October? | 100%Yes | -12 | $449k | $0 | 2026-11-01 |
| Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?薄市场Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | 100%Yes | ±0 | $381k | $48k | 2028-01-01 |
| What price will Bitcoin hit October 26-November 1?薄市场Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 26-November 1? | 100%Yes | -12 | $296k | $0 | 2026-11-02 |
| 事件 / 代表市场 | 市场价（≈概率） | Δ24h | 24h 成交 | 流动性 | 截止 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder vs. Mavericks薄市场 | 100%Mavericks | -68 | $5.8M | $0 | 2026-10-29 |
| Lakers vs. Clippers薄市场 | 100%Lakers | +37 | $5.8M | $0 | 2026-10-29 |
| Spurs vs. Jazz薄市场 | 100%Spurs | -3 | $4.4M | $0 | 2026-10-29 |
| Warriors vs. Timberwolves薄市场 | 100%Warriors | +60 | $3.9M | $0 | 2026-10-29 |
看 premium（标记价 − 预言机价），不看 funding：133/235 个合约的 funding 卡在平台利率基准，那个「+11%/年」是利率项不是多头拥挤。流动合约（24h > $5M）premium 中位 0.000%。
| 合约 | 标记价 | 24h | 24h 成交 | 持仓 | premium | funding |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $79,878.00 | -1.25% | $2.50B | $3.45B | -0.007% | 基准 |
| ETH | $2,308.20 | -1.91% | $923.1M | $2.53B | -0.040% | +2.1%/yr |
| HYPE | $78.750 | -3.02% | $371.5M | $1.61B | -0.011% | 基准 |
| ZEC | $1,238.30 | -5.13% | $325.1M | $627.9M | -0.015% | 基准 |
| SOL | $99.766 | -2.21% | $190.3M | $564.1M | -0.025% | 基准 |
| NEAR | $4.293 | -8.49% | $126.1M | $250.3M | +0.042% | 基准 |
| PUMP | $0.00420 | -2.78% | $73.3M | $113.1M | 0.000% | 基准 |
| kPEPE | $0.00502 | +5.08% | $64.9M | $51.6M | +0.060% | 基准 |
| XRP | $1.290 | -2.71% | $64.0M | $223.8M | -0.019% | 基准 |
| ENA | $0.19558 | -5.23% | $50.3M | $95.4M | +0.036% | 基准 |
| XMR | $590.47 | -3.20% | $28.1M | $120.0M | +0.040% | +12.8%/yr |
| LIT | $2.837 | -6.03% | $22.4M | $103.8M | -0.053% | -15.9%/yr |
| BinPerp | HlPerp | BybitPerp | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | +5.7% /8h | +10.9% /1h | +3.9% /8h |
| ETH | +4.2% /8h | +2.1% /1h | +6.0% /8h |
| SOL | +0.3% /8h | +10.9% /1h | -2.4% /8h |